I've been pondering this question for a while "what to do about the possible failure of China?". It is too big to just allow to careen wildly and it has a full suite of NBC weapons technology. We certainly wouldn't want certain stateless organizations getting their hands on that stuff now would we?
And we should take a close look at China as a potential failed state. Outside of Beijing, China is run by a vast collection of political and military warlords and many outside (and quite a few inside) of China barely eek out a meager existence. Though the country is not involved in a civil war, banditry is common outside of major metro areas and the national government needs the constant menace of Taiwan's independence and Japan's existence to keep the people supporting the party, as the thrill of shopping has begun to wane, people are smothered by the pollution and are getting sick of chronically defective products.
Then I read this snippet from a well known authority on China:
http://en.epochtimes.com/news/7-8-20/58863.html
And here is more from an up and coming China journalist:
http://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/69-29056.aspx
And because you never plan to fail, only fail to plan; one must come up with such a plan regarding how to deal with the remnants of China AND the expat population to boot.
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The first subject to deal with is China's non-conventional arsenal. Well, the answer is simpler than you think. China is bordered by two nuclear powers, Russia and India. It would not be impossible for these two countries to divide China's fixed, mobile and submarine nuclear missiles and secure them within their own borders. The Russians have a far more advanced missile system and far greater numbers of warheads, the Indians would benefit from an increase in warheads and possibly make some technical improvements to their arsenal, but the balance of nuclear power would be maintained and no new nuclear powers would be created. Other neighbors such as central Asian nations, S. Korea and Japan as well as the UN would be invited as official observers and to provide additional security.
Next, what to do about China's conventional military forces? Well, there would be new countries formed from the remains of China, and those with coastal exposure (which would constitute the majority of what is left of China) would have the option of keeping a fairly divided number of naval assets. New countries that did not have coastal exposure would receive a portion of equally divided air and land military assets. Territories that would be returned to their rightful governments (think: "Inner Mongolia") would have the option of taking said military assets or selling them.
We'll get back to the orderly breakup of the newly independent states.
Now in the midst of this restructuring of Asia lies a wild card: the ex-patriot population.
Some came to China because of their job (and the subsequent lifestyle of a minor diety), some came for the cultural experience, some to chase girls and drink, some came to put "China" on their resume and some are wanted for some fairly serious crimes back home.
The expat population has come to have an impact, both good and bad, on the local population where they live, especially in Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong and Shenzhen.
Well, in order to facilitate a proper reconstruction the influence of this population will have to be removed. Asia and the international community simply cannot allow crimminals, perverts, substance abusers and self-serving demigods to influence the new governments or the newly liberated society.
Now, internationally recognized aid groups and the media will certainly have their place as objective observers AND facilitators for the new liberated press in each new nation. However, those who are not part of this group (executives, teachers, entrepreneurs, lounge-abouts) WERE in China doing business and/or working with/for China, which no longer exists. To best benefit the new nations and respect their individual sovereignty, all of those parties associated with commerce and education will have to leave and return to the new countries and negotiate new contracts and licenses. There should be no carryovers or special arrangements made. The large populations of each country (representing potential customers and workers) as well as each country's need for developmental assistance will ensure their return. Former citizens of China with foreign spouses and their children will be provided with legal entry into their foreign spouses' home country as political refugees.
Companies that were formerly within China should be associated with their corporate headquarters to determine whether they are foreign in domestic in each new country. The foreign or domestic status of China SOEs will also fall within these guidelines. Formerly Chinese private companies and SOEs with assets outside of their new countries will have to negotiate with the hosting country(ies) regarding the sale of those assets or maintaining them as a foreign entity.
Regarding fugitives, other nations who suspect that someone of interest was residing in China will be given full access to "sweep" individuals from these new countries and from existing countries that have absorbed territories from what was known as China. These properly authorized and diplomatically recognized representatives will only need to provide an official arrest warrant and matching passport information to confirm the identification of the suspects. Any issues of dual citizenship/dual arrest warrants will need to be settled at the diplomatic level between the two relevant nations. The Reconstruction Authority (consisting of the US and the neighbors of the country formerly known as China as well as invited observers and monitors).
Territorial division will be the thorniest issue, however, the Reconstruction Authority can look back at history as well as relying on current political, cultural and economic boundaries for guidelines. Special exception will be given to areas of the former China that are environmental unsustainable. Residents of these areas will be given the opportunity to emigrate as environmental refugees to nations that will accept them or to remain on their homelands and fend for themselves. The world and these people need to recognize that the world cannot and should not expend valuable resources supporting people who choose to live in wastelands that lack sufficient food and water.
The Hui people of Ningxia and Gansu provinces come to mind.
I see the rest of the partitioning occuring along the following lines:
Xinjiang is officially recognized as E. Turkestan and can be recognized as an independent nation or enter into reunification
Inner Mongolia is returned to Mongolia.
Tibet is liberated.
Taiwan is welcomed back into the UN, Fujian province, being culturally related to Taiwan is allowed to enter into unification negotiations with Taipei.
Hong Kong and Macau would be allowed to decide their own fate as independent city states, forming a "supercity" or entering into negotiations with mainland provinces.
The remaining provinces and metropolitan areas (such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Chongqing) would be allowed to negotiate their own political arrangements, with conventional military and other former PRC assets divided among them equally (with the exception of naval assets for nations without coastlines).
All new nations would have to accept democratic governments, with the Aligned Asian Democracies providing guidance and consultation. These new nations would have to sign non-aggression pacts to politically recognize that there is no "mandate of heaven" to forcefully unite all of them as in the past.
To give these new nations a financial boost, the foreign debt formerly held by China would be divided up according to each new nation's population. Likewise, the newly reunited Mongolia, Tibet and any country that united with E. Turkestan would also receive a percentage of China's former debt in proportional to the repatriated population.
NH: Great brainstorming, though tinged with some fantasy. The Chinese equivalents of the NSA and Rand Corp. may think employees inside have been leaking their files. With respect to the expats, Sinification may work to a greater extent, as it has in the past. Corporate types will follow HQ's directives, and non-corporate types will listen to their spouses. Those without spouses may continue to seek the mindless bliss that China offers up so readily.
Todd:
Let me put it another way, in the ensuing chaos/impending chaos of the collapse of the CCP and the infighting of the PLA, the world's major military powers would be enforcing martial law to facilitate the peaceful breakup of China and the expats would have no choice about leaving or staying.
NH, a lot of expats are going to be very unhappy. After all, we know what the major non-work-related attractions/activities are for so many expats. Can they take gfs with them if they get married real soon before departure? Pls give this matter special consideration in your futuristic planning.
Todd:
You mean like "war brides"?
Sure.
All good stuff!
Of course, I got into a world of trouble trying to view the Epoch Times article. Do you have a good proxy tip for accessing stuff like that?
Your picture of a post-'China' world is strangely attractive. The reality, I fear, would (will?) be extremely messy. How do you envision the collapse/transition coming about?
By the way, NH, you might want to try to advertise to your existing and potential readers that the Blogspot block in China is fairly easily circumvented.
I've mentioned some of the methods on my own blog here and here.
The best seems to be this Firefox workaround, courtesy of Chinese student blogger, Yee (the link is Anonymoused because his site has been intermittently blocked these past few months).
Froog:
Great to feel the love. I can post the Epoch Times column on this blog and email it to you if you want.
I use firefox but I am not web-savvy,
Can I use your workarounds?
As for the collapse, leave that up to any number of pundits; Taiwan and a post-Olympics economic reality are two leading candidates. The ET article discusses a very deep split among current and retired senior Politburo and PLA members, with the PLA and many Politburo types supporting a return to Maoism which would send MNCs running like mad (but they couldn't take their money or technology with them).
I do know that some Asian democracies and the US have discussed with pro-democracy PLA and Politburo insiders the placement of their troops to keep mass hysteria and a human catastrophe from taking place.
Otherwise much of China would splinter into several nuclear armed North Koreas. Each trying to "unite under heaven" its neighbors, which is par for the course in China's history.
The Firefox thing is simple, but can be a little quirky to implement.
Key things to remember are: cut&paste the code in a single block; when pasted into WordPad it appears as a continuous line of text rather than as formatted on Yee's blog, but that doesn't appear to matter - DO NOT ATTEMPT TO ALTER IT.
The other, more irritating obstacle is that you have to save this code as a file named proxy.pac, and many versions of Windows seem to want obstinately to re-label it as a .txt file. When saving, you have to - if possible - select 'All files', rather than 'Text' or anything else, as the 'File type', and manually emend the file extension to .pac
Then..... it should work like a dream.
Being able to use Wikipedia without going through mind-buggeringly slow proxies is what I like best about it.
Good luck!
I am by no means an optimist about China, but I don't get the vibe that the forces of reaction have any prospect of getting their way here. These guys should remember that the people in Moscow who felt like they do didn't achieve anything except the accelerated disintegration of the Soviet empire.
I do feel China is likely to suffer violent social upheavals, and some fragmentation into more manageable-sized units of government; but I see that as happening on maybe a 50-yr timetable, rather than in the next 5 or 10.
But you never know. What it is to live through "interesting times"!
These sorts of thoughts were really common during the last few years of Deng's life (say 1992-1996). Most articles led with the quote from "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" (its something like what was once split is now whole, what was once whole is now split) and then launched into a review of how the current "China" as a construction is only really about 50 or so years old.
But that was then - I think a lot of the thinking then was about the massive imbalance of cash and resources in the South and East vs. the Far West. China 2007 is far different than China 1996 - sure its still wealthier and more developed South and East, but I think that Jiang and Hu have respectively been able to hold it together pretty well - in addition 18 straight years of an a hyper-nationalistic educational system has really imbued the current Chinese generations with an extremely highented and (way overly sensitive to cricitcism) sense of being Chinese* - so I just don't see it happening. Not now.
*Nationalistically, not ethinically.
t:
Ultra-nationalist education may provide more of an emotional bond to hold the country together, but everyone who can is fleeing the coutryside for the east and south. That leaves the old and feeble left in a region that is becoming more of a wasteland everyday, and with the chance to become independent and wealthier, would the eastern and southern regions want to carry the burden of the central and northern wastelands? The concept of Chinese charity is pretty lacking anyway. I would still say that E. Tukestan, Tibet and S. Mongolia get full independence with the help of foreign powers.
China is an unstable, untrustworthy menace to the rest of Asia.
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